Futures point to a higher open, with Nasdaq-100 futures up ~0.5% as SpaceX’s Q3 revenue beat (+161% YoY to $14.58B) and Super Micro’s raised outlook revive the AI trade; Netflix slid ~6% on a weak ad outlook and Brent crude is back above $110/bbl.
The Financial Times reports (citing three people familiar) that Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare a multi-day bombing campaign against Iran over the weekend of Oct 10 — nuclear, regime, and civilian-infrastructure/energy targets, larger in scale than February's Operation Roaring Lion — but Trump withheld approval ahead of the Nov 3 midterms. One source: 'Either there will be a deal or there will be an attack'; renewed strikes in the coming weeks 'not an unreasonable scenario.' Separately, Netanyahu said publicly Tuesday that regime overthrow is the goal — 'We must complete the overthrow of the Iranian regime. That is the main thing. I have discussed this with President Trump more than once' — after Defense Secretary Hegseth's unannounced visit to Israel on Monday. Sources: Financial Times via Azernews, United With Israel, ScoopFeeds, IANS.
Attacks are striking more ships and causing more severe damage than earlier in the conflict; at least 23 incidents logged in the first two weeks of October, with at least five reporting impacts to their engine rooms — engine-room hits can disable vessels for months and take ships out of service (Intertanko: 'an increase in the frequency of attacks, and therefore, more damage in engine rooms and disabling fire'; tanker-war parallels). Kpler: 7-day average Middle East oil exports fractionally above prewar levels, but the strikes threaten the shrinking pool of available tankers. Brent ~$110.39 (+1.47%), WTI ~$99.14 (+1.35%) Wednesday morning. Sources: Bloomberg via Rigzone, gCaptain.
Adj EPS $3.00 beat ($2.65 est) and revenue $3.05B (+22% YoY) beat ($2.91B est) — but the company disclosed a $450M antitrust settlement (−99¢/share to GAAP EPS) and narrowed the 2026 da Vinci procedure-growth outlook to 14–15% (from 13.5–15.5%), landing near the midpoint; U.S. da Vinci procedures grew only 10% ('lowest we've seen since COVID'). The premarket drop erased ~$11B of market value. Sources: Barron's, Investor's Business Daily.
$47.50/share all-cash, a ~58% premium to Braze's $30.04 Monday close; BRZE +51% Tuesday (largest daily percentage gain on record); CRM −1%. Salesforce's 15th acquisition since May 2025 (AI/marketing bet); no change to FY27 guidance; close expected in fiscal 2028. Sources: WSJ, Barron's.
A diplomat involved in the US-Iran talks told Bloomberg that reports an agreement is close are “inaccurate,” walking back Tuesday’s compromise-proposal rally that had lifted equities and eased oil (S&P 500 +0.3%, Dow +1%, Brent eased off ~$111 five-month highs). Separately, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir the US cannot earn Iran’s trust without meeting previously declared conditions — cessation of all hostilities and unfreezing Iranian assets. December WTI futures rose more than 1% overnight on the walk-back. Sources: Bloomberg via Mint, TradingKey, IBD.
The Nvidia-backed AI cloud firm Nscale is negotiating a second major deal with Anthropic — worth about $45 billion — for its Monarch data-center campus in West Virginia, per Bloomberg. Anthropic’s existing Nscale agreements are already worth up to ~$44.6 billion per its IPO filing. Extends the AI-capex financing wave (SpaceX $40B, OpenAI $30B reports) ahead of Wednesday’s big-tech earnings (Meta, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research all report after the close). Source: Bloomberg Law.
Revenue of $14.58B beat the $12.72B expected (LSEG), and net income of $4.4B beat the $1.57B expected (EPS ~35–45¢ vs ~13–14¢ estimated). AI revenue rose 9x to $7.6B — 52% of the total, overtaking Starlink's $5.25B — and capex was $19.6B, with $16.4B going to AI. Shares rose ~1.5–3% after hours after a $147.79 regular close. Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a merger; no agreement yet. Sources: Reuters, WSJ, Barron’s.
In a preliminary update after the close, Super Micro lifted its revenue guide to $18.5–19.5B from $14.5–15.5B prior (consensus ~$14.9–15.2B) — roughly +280% YoY at the midpoint — and raised gross-margin guidance to 12–12.5% from 10.4–10.8%. Shares jumped 10–15% after hours, and Dell and HPE rose on the read-through. Full results are due Nov 3. Sources: WSJ, Reuters, IBD.
Netflix reported Q3 after the close Tuesday: revenue growth came in slow and Q4 guidance disappointed, sending shares down ~7.6% in after-hours trading.
Adjusted EPS of $2.54 came in just under the ~$2.57–2.60 expected, while revenue of $17.88B was roughly in line (+17.4% YoY, a record). The Q4 guide of $0.50–$1.50 fell well below the $1.72–1.76 expected (midpoint ~43% below), with fuel expense up 62% YoY to $4.84B. Shares fell 2.1% after hours. Sources: WSJ, PR Newswire.
Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports mediators presented a compromise plan to revive US-Iran talks Tuesday, reportedly with Washington’s approval and preliminary Iranian agreement; Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman says there is “no military solution” and backs diplomacy. Details per Israel’s Channel 12: interest on ~$6B in Iranian funds held in Qatari banks would be transferred to Iran, plus a confidential IAEA visit to Iranian nuclear facilities. Markets moved on the report: Dow Jones +~500 points (+1%), S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.3%; WTI crude fell 1.5% to ~$102 after touching a one-month high, Brent back below $109 from a $111.20 intraday high. Caveat: the Wall Street Journal has not verified the underlying report. Sources: WSJ live coverage, IBD, Morningstar/Dow Jones Newswires.
NAR’s pending home sales index fell 7.3% m/m to 66.0 in September — the lowest since the series began in 2001 — vs ~0.4–0.5% expected; down 11.3% y/y as the 30-year mortgage rate surged past 7% to ~7.4–7.6%. Sources: NAR, Barron’s, MarketWatch.
IEA chief Fatih Birol says the agency will consider releasing more oil from emergency stocks if needed. Caveat: the mine/drone claims come from Iranian state media and the IRGC and are not independently verified; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the attack claims.
Shares fell ~7% — on pace for the biggest one-day drop in over a year — with GM blaming rising copper/steel/logistics costs from the Iran war and a ~$2B commodity-inflation headwind.
New five-month oil high tied to attacks claimed on Saudi energy infrastructure — the energy-shock input behind the yield surge and Fed-hike repricing; the FII postponement is the first major economic fallout signal. Caveat: Saudi authorities did not confirm the attack claims and Reuters could not independently verify them.
Demonstrations in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Nice, Bordeaux and Limoges; the 19th-century Limoges town hall burned down and ~1,500 businesses were looted or damaged. The Interior Ministry put Saturday arrests at ~2,400, and Paris police said one protester died of cardiac arrest. Protests also spread to Belgium, Italy and Portugal. The euro fell to ~$1.1225 at the Asia open, compounding France’s already-fragile fiscal position — the OAT-Bund spread blew out to its widest since the 2011 debt crisis in early October. Sources: Reuters, AP.
The new model claims faster performance and lower resource consumption, stoking fears that reduced storage and resource needs dampen chip demand; TSMC, SK Hynix and Advantest led the drop. The Kospi fell 1.6–3.2% early Monday, the Nikkei −1.2 to −2% and Taiwan −1.4%. It extends last week’s AI-funding selloff — the VanEck Semiconductor ETF’s 9-day losing streak and CoreWeave credit distress. This week’s earnings (Meta, Tesla) are the next read on AI capex momentum. Source: Bloomberg (via market reporting).
Industrial output +5.5% (in line); fixed-asset investment −7.2% YTD; property investment −20.6%. The beat eases pressure for more stimulus. The yuan firmed to 6.6828, its strongest since July 2022. China’s LPR decision is due Tuesday. Source: Reuters.
Iran reported the mine strike in the southern Strait of Hormuz. Record tanker rates and insurance charges add to the physical-delivery cost of every barrel. Brent still fell ~1.6–1.7% to ~$108 Monday on the ambiguity around Trump’s Russia sanctions waiver — Rubio said Saturday Trump will take up to 60 days to assess — so markets have not (yet) repriced the new incident higher. Source: Reuters.
Updated Wednesday at ~5:40 AM CT. Latest headlines cover Oct. 19–21; Friday closing values are fixed and do not update after publication.
Friday closing snapshot. Stocks fell in an AI-led rout — the Nasdaq's worst week since June — while Brent hit its highest settle since May; values are fixed at publication.
vs yesterday (Mon Oct 19): stock −0.2% · credit −12.0% · max loss +6.9% · breakevens $758.17/$776.83 → $758.39/$776.61
Better day to make this pick: yesterday — the credit fell 12.0% since yesterday ($183 → $161), so yesterday was the better day to sell this condor.
Implied chance of profit: ~66% (from option prices)
Expected move: the Oct. 23 at-the-money straddle is about $11.12, implying a ±1.45% move into the expiry. A quiet weekly expiry with no major scheduled catalyst — the structure simply sells the market's own ±1.45% expected move.
Position: a bet that SPY stays between $758.39 and $776.61 through the Oct. 23 expiry — profit if the market's weekly move lands within its expected ±1.45% range.
Defined risk: maximum loss is capped at $339 per contract no matter how far SPY moves past the wings. Maximum profit is the $161 credit.
Re-priced from the Nasdaq API on Tue. Oct. 20, 2026 between 8:49 and 9:01 AM CT; all four legs showed tight two-sided markets (one-cent spreads). Entry figures were from the live Nasdaq Oct. 23 chain on Oct. 16, 2026 at about 1:11 PM ET. The ~66% implied chance of profit is the options market's implied probability of SPY expiring inside the $760–$775 short strikes, backed out of the actual bid/ask quotes — not a personal forecast. Figures assume one 100-share iron condor and expiration values. For informational purposes only, not financial advice. Options involve risk.
vs yesterday (Mon Oct 19): stock +2.4% · credit +6.6% · max loss −4.6% · breakevens $212.94/$247.06 → $212.81/$247.20
Better day to make this pick: today — the credit rose 6.6% since yesterday ($206 → $219.50), so today is the better day to sell this condor.
Implied chance of profit: ~59% (from option prices)
Earnings: Wednesday, Oct. 21 after the close; call at 5:00 PM ET. Consensus is EPS of $2.86 on revenue of $16.82B. The Oct. 23 at-the-money straddle is about $17.10, implying a ±7.4% move.
Context: BofA expects a modest beat (Buy, $280 target); UBS stays Neutral ($236) and flagged delayed contracts recapturing less than 50% of slipped Q2 deals—the report is a test of whether that demand converts.
Position: a bet that IBM stays between $212.81 and $247.20 through the Oct. 23 expiry—profit if the earnings reaction lands within the market's expected ±7.4% move.
Defined risk: maximum loss is capped at $280.50 per contract no matter how far IBM moves past the wings. Maximum profit is the $219.50 credit.
Re-priced from the Nasdaq API on Tue. Oct. 20, 2026 between 8:49 and 9:01 AM CT; all four legs showed two-sided markets (32–90 cent spreads). Entry figures were from the live Nasdaq Oct. 23 chain on Oct. 16, 2026 at about 12:15 PM ET. The ~59% implied chance of profit is the options market's implied probability of IBM expiring inside the $215–$245 short strikes, backed out of the actual bid/ask quotes — not a personal forecast. Figures assume one 100-share iron condor and expiration values. For informational purposes only, not financial advice. Options involve risk.
vs yesterday (Mon Oct 19): stock +0.9% · debit +3.4% · max profit −1.9% · breakeven $71.79 → $71.85
Better day to make this pick: yesterday — the debit rose 3.4% since yesterday ($178.50 → $184.50), so yesterday was the better day to buy this spread.
Implied chance of profit: ~40% (from option prices)
Earnings: Tuesday, Oct. 20 after the close. Analysts expect EPS of $0.82 (+39%) on revenue of $12.87B (+12%). The Oct. 23 at-the-money straddle implies a ±9% move, or about ±$6.35; quoted IV is 80.9%.
Thesis: Contrarian bounce — the stock is down 41% in a year and analysts are cutting targets into the print, but the free-cash-flow story remains intact at an expected $12.5B. A solid FCF print could spark short covering and a sharp move.
Position: bullish call spread, buying the Oct. 23 $70 call and selling the $75 call for a $184.50 net debit.
Defined risk: the maximum loss is the $184.50 debit if NFLX closes at or below $70 on Oct. 23. Maximum profit is $315.50 at or above $75; the breakeven is $71.85.
Re-priced from the Nasdaq API on Tue. Oct. 20, 2026 between 8:49 and 9:01 AM CT; both legs showed tight two-sided markets (5–10 cent spreads). Entry figures were from Nasdaq on Oct. 16, 2026 at about 1:01 PM ET. The ~40% implied chance of profit is the options market's implied probability of NFLX expiring above the $71.85 breakeven, backed out of the actual bid/ask quotes — not a personal forecast. Figures assume one 100-share contract spread and expiration values. For informational purposes only, not financial advice. Options involve risk.
Expected moves are options-implied estimates, not predictions — actual moves can differ. Bot's Call and Best Play are for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Options involve risk.
1 win · 1 loss
2 wins · 0 losses
2 wins · 1 loss
Revenue +161% YoY to $14.58B with AI contributing more than half of sales; Musk confirmed SpaceX and Tesla formed special committees to explore a potential ~$3.5T merger.
Raised AI-server sales and gross-margin outlook on strong preliminary results; Dell, HPE, CoreWeave and neocloud names lifted alongside.
Posted its slowest revenue growth in three years and cut its 2026 ad-revenue outlook, days after laying off 6% of its workforce.
Mediation hopes faded after Tehran statements; US envoys head to Moscow for Ukraine talks; 10-yr Treasury yield ~5.12%.
94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75-4.00% next week; all 100 now expect a December hike, up from fewer than half in September’s poll; markets price ~86% odds of a hold next week.
Elice rebounded the 29.9% daily limit after Tuesday’s -32% IPO debut; India’s Jio Platforms ‘mother of all IPOs’ opens today.
S&P 500 +0.3% to 7,712.57; Nasdaq -0.02% to 26,424.82. Earnings beat-and-raise names (3M, Northrop Grumman) led; oil pullback helped.
Watchlist updated Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Values are fixed at publication.
The Dow jumped 529.85 points (+1.02%) to 52,495.88 and the S&P 500 added 0.28% to 7,712.57, while the Nasdaq finished essentially flat at 26,424.82 (−0.02%). Reports — not verified by the WSJ — that Qatar-Pakistan mediators presented a US-Iran compromise proposal pulled oil back from five-month highs. Healthcare stocks rose 2.3% to a record as investors rotated out of tech ahead of Wednesday’s Meta, Tesla and IBM earnings. After the close, SpaceX posted its first profitable quarter as a public company, Super Micro raised guidance sharply, and Netflix fell ~7.6% on weak Q4 guidance.
U.S. futures traded mixed early Tuesday after Monday's AI-led rebound (S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Dow -0.07%). Brent crude held above $110 a barrel, near a five-month high, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated. Asian markets slid hard — Korea's Kospi fell 4.3% — on energy-cost and AI-funding fears. Fed Chair Warsh reinforced expectations of an October rate hold at the Oct 27-28 FOMC, with a December hike still heavily priced in. General Motors beat Q3 estimates but narrowed full-year guidance, and shares fell about 6% premarket despite a new $20B buyback.
Stocks closed mostly higher Monday in a tech-led rebound from last week's AI-driven selloff: the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.11% to 26,430.89 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.17%, snapping five straight declines, while the S&P 500 added 0.41% to 7,690.73, the Dow eased 0.07% to 51,966.03 and the Russell 2000 rose 0.25%. The VIX fell 7.75% to 18.44, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed ~6 bp to ~5.14%, and oil pulled back — WTI ~$99.6, Brent ~$107 — with gold ~$4,155.
Markets are closed after Friday's selloff capped a brutal week for AI and semiconductor names. Weekend news is dominated by US-Iran ceasefire diplomacy, with oil sinking and futures watching the Sunday 6pm ET reopen.
Weekend edition: markets closed; futures reopen Sunday 6pm ET. Friday closed an AI-led rout — the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.14% to 26,140.03, down 4.48% on the week, its worst week since late June, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.09% to 7,659.44 (−1.95% on the week). The Dow slipped 0.34% to 52,002.41 but still gained 0.67% on the week — its second straight weekly gain — as defensive rotation cushioned the fall and 70% of S&P 500 stocks rose on the week. Semiconductors fell for a ninth straight session, the VIX closed at 19.99 and Brent settled at $109.86, its highest since May.
Friday's selloff was driven by AI-credit fears — SOXX fell for a ninth straight day, its longest losing streak since 2006, amid CoreWeave debt stress — plus a surge in oil, while defensive rotation cushioned the Dow. The S&P 500 fell 1.09% to 7,659.44, the Nasdaq dropped 2.14% to 26,140.03 and the Dow slipped 0.34% to 52,002.41, though it still gained 0.67% on the week.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst day since July as hotter-than-expected September CPI revived Fed-hike bets, pushed the 10-year Treasury as high as 5.33% and extended the semiconductor selloff.
Markets were closed Sunday. Saturday’s Houthi missile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid airport killed 13 and wounded more than 300. Saudi and Qatari stocks fell about 1%, while traders watched crude before the futures reopen and looked ahead to bank earnings and CPI.
Friday’s rally closed out a winning week—Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +1.15% and Nasdaq +0.64%—despite elevated oil and bond yields. The weekend setup included a Russian diesel-supply deal, a White House inquiry targeting Fed Governor Lisa Cook and a steep fall in Michigan consumer sentiment.
The Dow gained 423 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 0.6% as tech recovered from Thursday’s selloff. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell 8.5%–13% after SpaceX’s nationwide spectrum purchase for Starlink Mobile.
U.S. stocks finished mixed to lower Thursday: the Dow gained 0.1% to 51,231.64, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,765.36 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3% to 27,193.34. The AI selloff followed the Financial Times’ OpenAI revenue report, while crude surged before Trump ruled out an Iran attack before the midterms.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell 0.2%, while the Dow lost 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.37% before a strong $39 billion note auction steadied bonds.
The S&P 500 gained 0.58% for its first record close since August and the Nasdaq logged a second straight record, while the 10-year yield eased to 5.27% and oil held near $100.
The Nasdaq closed at a record as AI-linked names led Monday’s advance, while multi-decade-high Treasury yields kept pressure on rate-sensitive sectors.
Markets were closed Sunday as the G7 reserve release, Iran oil pressure and the 10-year yield set up Monday’s risk frame.
Markets were closed for the weekend after September payrolls badly missed expectations, collapsing October Fed hike odds and sending the Nasdaq to an intraday record while the 10-year eased from a 24-year high.
Futures pointed higher ahead of the September jobs report, with payrolls expected around 84K–90K and the 10-year yield easing off Thursday’s 24-year high.
Q4 opens with futures mostly higher as a cooler core PCE print (3.0% YoY vs 3.3% expected) cut October Fed hike odds to about 37–39%, even as the 10-year yield pushed to ~5.31%, its highest since 2002.
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Orlando = 1